Here’s to the Crazy Ones. The misfits. The rebels. The trouble-makers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules, and they have no respect for the status-quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify, or vilify them. About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world – are the ones who do.

It’s early days for social analytics, but ever since the term “viral” was coined, there have been many attempts to determine how and why content gets rapidly disseminated across the social sphere. While there probably isn’t a single formula that works for all, understanding social amplification is a bit of art and science. The NY Times’ R&D group has taken an analytical approach through Project Cascade, a beautiful visualization of how some of their content spreads over time, seeking patterns and trends. Breaking down large sets of data into multiple graphical views that change over time often beats trying to make sense of often multiple spreadsheets of data. While Project Cascade has been deemed an R&D effort, I see promise in other contexts.

Photo credit: Ozier Muhammad/The New York Times

It’s pretty clear that mobile devices have become the de facto platform for digital innovation. The sheer number of mobile-centric startups that are quickly gaining traction is astounding. From Path to Instagram, from IntoNow to Color, entrepreneurs are tapping into possibilities that didn’t seem likely even a year ago.

One area that I expected to explode is the field of mobile payments. Unlike many new mobile trends, like location-services, the payment field is very mature with serious competitors who have been at it for decades. In order to successfully disrupt the market, contenders will need to overcome the following issues/barriers, all of which are critical to commercial success.

• Infrastructure. Incumbents like Visa and Mastercard have invested heavily in robust networks for processing and transferring credit card data back and forth. Similar to landline telecom companies, they have a vested interest in ensuring their mobile payment tactics use what’s currently in place.
• Vendor Acceptance. While mobile payment is still in its infancy, mobile payment providers will need to understand how to best integrate mobile payment infrastructure in retail environments. Do they plan to displace credit cards or add another device to check-out counters with another scanner, adding to an increasingly complex setup?
• Fees. While Visa and Mastercard typically charge merchants about 2% new market entrants will need to entice vendors with a better value proposition to increase adoption. Similar to Paypal, I suspect mobile payment players will need to get creative with their fee structures.
• Barriers to entry. Unlike entrenched incumbents that have enjoyed the comforts of high barriers to entry, the mobile space plays by different rules. Square, Mophie and others have demonstrated that relatively cheap hardware paired with 3G/WiFi connectivity can transform millions of smartphones into legitimate payment systems. No longer do you need proprietary hardware.
• Security & Fraud detection. Incumbents like Verisign claim the up-and-comers lack adequate security measures like encryption, which should be cause for alarm. Whether or not this is a real concern or if encryption can be added simply remains to be seen.
• Consumers. Perhaps most importantly, getting a large number of regular consumers will prove the most challenging part of the equation. The potential audience size – make that global audience – makes for a particularly enticing opportunity. As they learn to rely more and more on their mobile devices, I predict more and more people will expect to be able to make mobile payments. This could also keep track of all payments, perhaps putting an end to wallets and purses stuffed to the brim with outdated receipts.

There’s no question the opportunity for mobile payments is significant and very lucrative. Whether the incumbents or startups end up owning the space is not clear. What is clear is consumer demand. Whoever strikes the right balance of practical convenience, ubiquity and seamless experience – and strikes while iron is hot – has a shot at striking gold.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, then there isn’t much else to say about the music industry. I will say that the industry had a good run. But over the last decade, they have favored lawsuits over innovation, and insisted on clinging on to a business model that forced consumers to buy a full album when they wanted a la carte songs. I’d say the industry is ripe for change and for new businesses to come in to reap the rewards.

Hitpost is an interesting new web experience for sports fans. Instead of using a traditional web interface, it appears to have been heavily influenced by a mobile app, Flipboard. This strikes me as bold and noteworthy because as digital designers, we often have to “dumb down” web interfaces for mobile but here we have the opposite, where a mobile interface is scaled up for the desktop. I laud their approach and can’t wait to get my hands on the beta.

If you had asked me a few years ago, which car manufacturer was doing really innovative work, I might have answered BMW with their iDrive system, Toyota for their pioneering hybrid technology or Bugatti, for their world-beating Veyron. This was at time when the Big 3 in Detroit were hemorraging cash and the economic downturn was spiraling the economy out of control. GM and Chrysler took huge government bailouts and their days seemed numbered.

Fast forward to the present and ask the same question and you would hear a very different story and some pleasant surprises. Ford has risen to the top of the domestic market having weathered the downturn by being in tune with the market. Their social media efforts have galvanized the company unlike any other I’ve seen and they have earned credibility by launching products that the market needs and wants.

Not only has Ford been attuned to the market from a traditional product perspective, they’re kept up with the rapid ascension of their customers’ increasingly digital lifestyles. This means mobile and Ford gets it. Their new myFord mobile application brings together practical utility and extends the functionality of their new Ford Focus Electric by giving owners useful information such as maps with nearby charging stations, ways to optimize charging times to minimize electricity costs and routes to maximize efficiency. It is available on BlackBerry, Android and iOS and also via the mobile web. This is a smart example of a company that has shared values with its customers and has created a valuable experience that is useful on brand.

It’s no secret that Netflix is moving up the value chain. Seeing the need to evolve away from a DVD-mail based business model, they’ve become the Apple of the streaming movie business, accounting for 20% of web traffic during prime time hours. They have quickly become the standard platform — and strong selling point – for any streaming media device, including AppleTV, Roku, Boxee and others. Netflix has also developed applications for nearly all mobile devices, so you can stream from device to device.

Netflix have been working with TV manufacturers to become a content source but its recent announcement about working with the manufacturers to include a Netflix button on remote controls is a huge step forward and I believe, a Trojan Horse for taking over living room entertainment.

Not only are they negotiating for more and more films on demand, they are also working to acquire distribution rights for in-season TV shows. Imagine that: a single content provider for on-demand TV and movies, with no advertising and a simple monthly subscription fee. That is what many consumers have been waiting for and it may be coming soon to a remote control near you.